In this paper, we present the new model developed at Banque de France to forecast the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and its components in France up to twelve quarters during the Eurosystem projection exercises. The model is a partial equilibrium model and is used for forecast...

In this paper, we present an updated version of the reference model used at Banque de France to forecast inflation: MAPI (Model for Analysis and Projection of Inflation). While the conceptual framework of the model remains very close to its initial version, our update takes stock of three...

In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the relative performance of a large set of alternative global...

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the impact of oil price forecast errors on inflation forecast errors for two different sets of recent forecasts data: the median of SPF inflation forecasts for the U.S. and the Central Bank inflation forecasts for France. Mainly two salient...

Recent studies emphasize that survey-based inflation risk measures are informative about future inflation and thus useful for monetary authorities. However, these data are typically available at a quarterly frequency whereas monetary policy decisions require a more frequent monitoring of such...

We incorporate external information extracted from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters into the predictions of a Bayesian VAR, using entropic tilting and soft conditioning. The resulting conditional forecasts significantly improve the plain BVAR point and density...

Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation is summarized by a small number of data series. However,...

We use several U.S. and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation with time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the United States and in the euro area. Our methodology...

The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long-run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables...

We study the behavior of inflation rates among the 12 initial Euro countries in order to test whether and when the group convergence initially dictated by the Maastricht treaty and now by the ECB, occurs. We also assess the impact of events such as the advent of the Euro and the 2008 financial...