recent years, the dynamics of M3 in the euro area have been driven by two factors: a strong preference for liquidity, observed between 2001 and 2003, followed by a normalisation, at a relatively moderate pace, of portfolio behaviour; as regards the counterparts, changes in M3 and net external...

As part of the Eurosystem’s annual banknote production planning, the national central banks draw up forecasts estimating the volumes of national-issued banknotes in circulation for the three years ahead. As at the end of 2021, more than 80 per cent of euro banknotes in circulation (cumulated...

This paper investigates how the identification assumptions of monetary policy shocks modify the inference in a standard DSGE model. Considering SVAR models in which either the interest rate is predetermined for money or these two monetary variables are simultaneously determined, two DSGE models...

This paper explores the various shapes the recoveries may exhibit within a Markov-Switching model. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed by Kim, Morley and Piger (2005) and extends the methodology by proposing i) a more flexible bounce-back model, ii) explicit tests to select the...

For central banks, institutional, and individual investors, it is crucial to understand the frequency and importance of drops or sudden rises in financial markets. Extreme value theory (EVT) is an interesting tool providing answers to questions such as: With what frequency do we find variations...

It is well known that traditional inference do not apply when the spectral density of a stationary process vanishes for some frequency. This paper examines some properties of several new non parametric tests of this hypothesis which have been recently proposed by Lacroix (1999). These tests...

Non parametric and parametric estimation for the spectral density of a stationary process is a well-known topic, except when the spectrum vanishes for some frequency. Indeed, for this frequency, the limit law degenerates, and traditional inference no longer applies. The paper introduces non...

Recent portfolio choice asset pricing and option valuation models highlight the importance of skewness and kurtosis. Since skewness and kurtosis are related to extreme variations they are also important for Value-at-Risk measurements. Our framework builds on a GARCH model with a condi-tional...

We identify and examine the presence of the long memory in equity returns and more generally in specific transformations of these returns, on both the US and European stock markets. Taking into account the persistence phenomenon, we analyze the effect of the splitting of the sample period on the...

In order to measure the interdependence between different markets, we investigate and compare different measures of dependence including cross-correlation, conditional correlation, concordance and correlation in tails. In the latter case, we use the notion of copula and we define two kinds of...