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-2018 may have caused a 1 percentage point decline in world trade growth. The paper also finds that the impact of policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012167789
The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach has proven to be a very useful approach to analyze interactions in the global macroeconomy and other data networks where both the cross-section and the time dimensions are large. This paper surveys the latest developments in the GVAR modeling,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354717
This paper studies the trade effects of Covid-19 using monthly disaggregated trade data for 28 countries and multiple trading partners from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2020. Regression results based on a sector-level gravity model show that the negative trade effects induced by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012434704
Decades of services trade negotiations have produced a plethora of rules and commitments but limited real liberalization. One reason is a form of "negotiating tunnel vision," which has led to a focus on reciprocal market opening rather than on creating the regulatory preconditions for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929406
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002114727
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011553614
global pandemic scenario sees gross domestic product fall by 2 percent below the benchmark for the world, 2.5 percent for … world, in an amplified pandemic scenario in which containment is assumed to take longer and which now seems more likely. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012240534
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641659
The paper contributes to the growing global VAR (GVAR) literature by showing how global and national shocks can be identified within a GVAR framework. The usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of the interactions between public debt and real output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011956353
observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293790