We forecast average annual GDP growth for 147 countries for 2010-30. We use a cross-country regression model where the long-run fundamentals are determined by countries' accumulated capabilities and the capacity to undergo structural transformation

Becoming a rich country requires the ability to produce and export commodities that embody certain characteristics. We classify 779 exported commodities according to two dimensions: (1) sophistication (measured by the income content of the products exported); and (2) connectivity to other...

Over the past 40 years, regulatory reforms have been undertaken on the assumption that markets are efficient and self-corrective, crises are random events that are unpreventable, the purpose of an economic system is to grow, and economic growth necessarily improves well-being. This narrow...