Von der demographischen Entwicklung wird allgemein eine Zunahme der Zahl Pflegebedürftiger erwartet. Um die mögliche Dynamik in diesem Bereich aufzuzeigen, wird mit Hilfe des DIW-Bevölkerungsmodells, das u.a. die weiterhin steigende Lebenserwartung modelliert, die Zahl der Pflegefälle...

In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated...

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic...

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias,...

Das Thema Fachkräftemangel ist seit Überwindung der Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise wieder verstärkt in den Fokus öffentlicher Aufmerksamkeit gerückt. Der Forschungsbericht, der aus einem vom Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales (BMAS) finanzierten Projekt entstanden ist, leistet auf...

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the...