We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of heightened uncertainty or economic slack as opposed to normal times. Using quarterly historical data and local projections, we estimate a cumulative one-year multiplier of 2 during uncertain periods. In...

This paper retraces how financial stability considerations interacted with U.S. monetary policy before and during the Great Recession. Using text-mining techniques, we construct indicators for financial stability sentiment expressed during testimonies of four Federal Reserve Chairs at...

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed when the ratio of volatilities is time-varying....

We trace the impact of the European Central Bank (ECB) asset purchase programme (APP) on the yield curve. Exploiting granular information on sectoral asset holdings and ECB asset purchases, we construct a novel measure of the "free-float of duration risk" borne by pricesensitive investors. We...

We estimate the effects of monetary policy on price-setting behavior in administrative micro data underlying the German producer price index. After expansionary monetary policy, the increase in the frequency of price change is economically small, the average absolute size across all price...

We explain the role of the Phillips Curve at the ECB in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...

We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously,...

In federal countries, such as the U.S., the fiscal authority consists not of one, but many governments, with state governments accounting for a sizable share of expenditures. We analyze how state partisanship of politicians affects state fiscal policy and quantify the possible macroeconomic...

The functional income distribution in the US and most OECD countries has been characterized by an increasing capital income share and a declining wage share over the last decades. We present new evidence for the US economy that this fact is not only explained by technical change and...

Since the mid-1970s, firm entry rates in the United States have declined significantly. This also holds for other OECD countries over the past years. At the same time, these economies experienced a gradual process of population aging. Applying a tractable life-cycle model with endogenous firm...