We propose a multiplicative dynamic factor structure for the conditional modelling of the variances of an N-dimensional vector of financial returns. We identify common and idiosyncratic conditional volatility factors. The econometric framework is based on an observation-driven time series model...

To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...

We consider unobserved components time series models where the components are stochastically evolving over time and are subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of the observed time series. We develop a simulated...