Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...

An Englishman once watched his first American football game. He looked intently as the team gathered into a huddle after each play. His American host asked him what he thought of the proceedings. "Not a bad sport", remarked the visitor, "but they do seem to engage in an excessive number of...

The stock market crash of October 1987 was not followed by the widely-feared recession in the world economy. Most forecasts have been revised upward again, and many are even more favorable than before the crash. This is also the case for Western European countries. However, beyond the very short...