This paper explores the empirical determinants of external crises on a world panel dataset of 62 countries over the fifty-year period 1970-2019 and estimates their risk trade-offs with the aim of informing macrofinancial prudential policies. The determinants include countries' external balance...

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of debt on economic growth through two alternative methodological approaches. On the one hand, by using a panel error correction model with a sample of 130 countries between 1980 and 2020, we found evidence of the existence of a range of debt-to-GDP...

We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2005. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate conditions less predictable across countries, with...

The EU has embarked on multiple initiatives reflecting its commitment to environmental enhancement and sustainable transitions. Notable among these are the European Green Deal and the NextGenerationEU recovery plan, both pivotal in fostering eco-friendly policies and sustainable practices within...

While the effect of higher public debt levels on economic growth has received much attention, the literature partly points to contradictory results. This paper applies meta-regression methods to 826 estimates from 48 primary studies. The unweighted mean of the reported results suggests: a 10...

In this paper we document the stylized facts about the relationship between international oil price swings, sovereign risk and macroeconomic performance of oil-exporting economies. We show that even though being a bigger oil producer decreases sovereign risk–because it increases a...

The procyclicality of fiscal policy that is prevalent in developing countries and emerging markets is well known. Its explanation is less clear. Recently, social inequality and the combination of corruption and democracy have been suggested as alternatives to the traditional explanation of these...

What happens if HIPC debt relief resources are not additional? We seek to answer this question by quantifying the impact of debt service payments and aid flows in cross- country growth and investment regressions . Based on the regressions we assess the likely impact of debt relief with and...