In the last 20 years, social capital, has been evoked in several field of social science research and used to explain a vast range of phenomena: political participation, institution performance, corruption, economic success of countries and so on. Unfortunately, dealing with social capital at a...

We propose a methodology for producing density forecasts for the output gap in real time using a large number of vector autoregessions in inflation and output gap measures. Density combination utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to produce potentially non-Gaussian ensemble densities...

A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against model instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock andWatson (2004) and Clark and McCracken (2009). In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight...