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We apply graphical modelling theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches of which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions of graphical modelling is a data based tool. Our results are in...
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In this paper we explore the information content of a large set of fiscal indicators for US real output growth and … inflation. We provide evidence that fluctuations in certain fiscal variables contain valuable information to predict … these indicators contain valuable information for inflation. Finally, state-local expenditures help predict US inflation. A …
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An output gap measure is suggested based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The paper explains the advantages of using survey data in business cycle analysis and the...
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