This paper introduces a new theoretic entity, a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. Abstractions used in the evaluation stage of decision making typically involve nominalist heuristics that are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes...

The prior paper in this sequel, Pope (2009) introduced the concept of a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. In this paper the concept is used to show three things in how scientists and practitioners analyse and evaluate to decide (conclude). First,...

The paper re-expresses and complements arguments against the normative validity of expected utility theory in Robin Pope (1983, 1991a, 1991b, 1985, 1995, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007). The objections concern the neglect of the evolving stages of knowledge ahead (stages of what the future will...

This paper's field evidence is: (1) many official sectors rapidly forget the damage of the 1982-85 exchange rate liquidity crisis and reverted to what caused that crisis, namely a closed economy clean floats perspective; and (2) the 2006-2008/9 exchange rate liquidity shock would have been more...

Opinion is divided on whether it is better to have a single world money or variable exchange rates.Pope, Selten and von Hagen (2003) propose that fresh light would be shed via an analysis that allows forseven complexity impacts on the exchange rate that are underplayed (where not entirely...

The paper traces the dangers in the closed economy perspective of a monetary policy focused on adomestic inflation goal under a clean float. Field evidence of the damage wrought from this perspective isreinforced by that from a laboratory experiment. The laboratory experiment avoids measurement...

The paper re-expresses arguments against the normative validity of expected utility theory inRobin Pope (1983, 1991a, 1991b, 1985, 1995, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007). These concern the neglect of the evolving stages of knowledge ahead (stages of what the future will bring). Such evolution is...

In studies concluding that public debt may hamper GDP, the debt tipping effects are estimated as if there were a single world currency. This means that such studies ignore the likely biggest cause of changes in growth rates, namely damage from exchange rate liquidity shocks because we do not...

This paper's objective is to use SKAT, the author's Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory of risk, to shed fresh light on the treatment and prevention of mental disorders. SKAT employs a broad definition of risk that allows for nice not merely nasty possibilities. SKAT is here shown to solve eight...