To improve the detection of the economic ”danger zones” from which severe banking crises emanate, this paper introduces classification tree ensembles to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that their out-of-sample performance in forecasting binary banking crisis indicators...

This paper investigates within a SVAR framework the effects of anticipated monetary policy in the euro area. Building on a procedure recently proposed by Cochrane yielding the response of output to an anticipated monetary policy impulse, we show that in the past twenty years anticipated monetary...

This paper attempts to find out the explanatory power of observed changes in the distribution of current income in explaining the relative change in aggregate consumption using the distributional approach of aggregation by Hildenbrand and Kneip (1999, 2001). The coefficients in the aggregate...

Trades in DAX index options with identical maturities cluster around particular classes of strike prices. For example, options with strikes ending on 50 are less traded than options with strikes ending on 00. Clustering is higher when options with close strike prices are good substitutes. The...

Keynesian theory suggests that a reduction in government expenditure has a negative effect on private demand and therefore on output. Contrary, neoclassical theory argues that reduced public expenditure makes room for an expansion of the private sector and thus has a stimulating effect on the...

In this contribution we examine the interrelation between intra-firm wage increases and firm performance. Previous studies have focused on the dispersion of wages in order to examine for the empirical dominance of positive monetary incentive effects compared to adverse effects due to fairness...

A new approach of estimating a forward-looking equity risk premium (ERP) is to calculate the implied risk premium using present value (PV) formulas. This paper compares implied risk premia obtained from different PV models and evaluates them by analyzing their underlying firmspecific...