The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode...

This paper investigates the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity in South Africa by analysing the relationship between house prices and the prices of non-housing goods and services. Quarterly data series are collected for the luxury, large middle-segment, medium middle-segment, small...

This paper considers the ability of large-scale (involving 145 fundamental variables) time-series models, estimated based on dynamic factor analysis and Bayesian shrinkage, to forecast real house price growth rates of the four US census regions and the aggregate US economy. Besides, the standard...

This paper examines asymmetries in the impact of monetary policy on the middle segment of the South African housing market from 1966:M2 to 2011:M12. We use Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) models in which parameters change according to the phase of the housing cycle. The results...

This paper analyses the relationship between house prices and the trade balance in South Africa using an agnostic identification procedure. This method allows a housing demand shock to be identified in an eight-variable VAR model by imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of consumer...

This paper empirically examines the causal linkages between policy uncertainty and house prices in a panel of seven advanced countries including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US. We implement a bootstrap panel causality test on quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2013Q1, which...

We analyse the impact of financial liberalisation on the link between monetary policy and house prices. We present a simple model of a small open economy subject to credit constraints. The model shows that the higher the degree of financial liberalisation, the stronger is the impact of interest...

This paper investigates the dynamic causal link between exports and economic growth using both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests. We use annual South African data on real exports and real gross domestic product from 1911-2011. The linear Granger causality result shows no evidence of...

This paper investigates the causal relationship between asset prices and per capita output across 50 US states and the District of Columbia over 1975 to 2012. A bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is applied on a trivariate VAR comprising of real house prices, real stock prices and real...

The recent commodity price boom has spurred interest to understand determinants of commodity price movements. This paper investigates the causal relationship between oil prices and the prices of 25 other commodities, which include both metals and agricultural products, in the presence of...