One of the more dramatic financial events of the late 1980s and early 1990s was the surge in Japanese stock prices that was immediately followed by a very sharp decline of more than 50 percent. While the unprecedented fluctuations in Japanese stock prices were domestic financial shocks, the...

The stock of real estate loans held by New England Banks has declined dramatically. Given the limited potential for real estate investments, weak demand for real estate loans is to be expected. However supply as well as demand for real estate factors may account for some of the decline in bank...

A key provision of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 was prompt corrective action (PCA). PCA emphasized early intervention by bank supervisors and was intended to limit forbearance by making supervisory intervention more timely and less discretionary. However,...

The dramatic reduction in the growth rate of bank lending associated with the 1990-91 recession, particularly in New England that has evoked claims by many observers of a credit crunch. However because of the difficulty in determining whether the observed slow credit growth is a demand or supply...

By 1989 the Michigan Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID) had experienced approximately 50 percent sample loss from cumulative attrition from its initial 1968 membership. We study the effect of this attrition on the unconditional distributions of several socioeconomic variables and on the...

It is widely known that when there are negative moving average errors, a high order augmented autoregression is necessary for unit root tests to have good size, but that information criteria such as the AIC and BIC tend to select a truncation lag that is very small. Furthermore, size distortions...

Ever since the development of the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model (Engle [1982]), testing for the presence of ARCH has become a routine diagnostic. One popular method of testing for ARCH is T times the R^2 from a regression of squared residuals on p of its lags. This...