Do individuals use all information at their disposal when forming expectations about future events? In this paper we present an econometric framework to answer this question. We show how individual information sets can be characterized by simple nonparametric exclusion restrictions and provide a...

A plausible explanation for cointegration among spot currency rates determined in efficient markets is the existence of a stationary, time-varying currency risk premium. Such an interpretation is contingent upon stationarity of the forward premium. However, empirical evidence on the stochastic...

This paper considers two potential rationales for the apparent absence of mean reversion in real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era. We allow for (i) fractional integration and (ii) a double mean shift in the real exchange rate process. These methods, applied to CPI-based rates for 17...

Does merger and acquisition (M&A) activity occur in waves, that is, are there oscillations between low and high levels of M&A activity? The answer to this question is important in developing univariate as well as structural models of explaining and forecasting the stochastic behavior of M&A...

Under conditions of risk neutrality and rational expectations in the foreign exchange market, there should be a one-to-one relationship between the forward rate and the corresponding future spot rate. However, cointegration-based tests of the unbiasedness hypothesis of the forward rate have...

This paper is concerned with extending the familiar notion of fixed effects to nonlinear setups with infinite dimensional unobservables like preferences. The main result is that a generalized version of differencing identifies local average structural derivatives (LASDs) in very general...

In this paper we consider endogenous regressors in the binary choice model under a weak median exclusion restriction, but without further specification of the distribution of the unobserved random components. Our reduced form specification with heteroscedastic residuals covers various...

This paper considers measurement error from a new perspective. In surveys, response errors are often caused by the fact that respondents recall past events and quantities imperfectly. We explore the consequences of recall errors for such key econometric issues as the identification of marginal...

In this paper we are concerned with analyzing the behavior of a semiparametric estimator which corrects for endogeneity in a nonparametric regression by assuming mean independence of residuals from instruments only. Because it is common in many applications, we focus on the case where endogenous...

This paper discusses new development in nonparametric econometric approaches related to empirical modeling of demand decisons. It shows how diverse recent approaches are, and what new modeling options arise in practice. We review work on nonparametric identification using nonseparable functions,...