This paper presents results from a 1971 natural experiment carried out by the Canadian government on the unemployment insurance system. At that time they dramatically increased the generosity of the system. We find that the propensity to collect UI increases with a first time exposure to the...

In standard shirking models of efficiency wages, workers are motivated only by high wages. Yet 23% of young US workers report receiving some form of performance pay. This paper extends the efficiency wage framework using the theory of self-enforcing agreements to allow for performance pay in the...

Gift giving is a practice common to many societies. In an evolutionary model the social custom of giving gifts at the beginning of a relationship can lead to trust and cooperation. The evolutionary approach makes predictions about the character of the goods that can be used as gifts. For...

This paper introduces a model of contract incompleteness and bounded rationality based on the multi-tasking model of Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991). It is shown that the trade-off between the use of an employment relationship versus and explicit state contingent contract depends on number of tasks...

We examine an evolutionary model of preferences in a society where resources are finite. Agents who develop better strategies for bargaining and trading will grow to dominate the population. We show that successful agents will have preferences that exhibit the "endowment effect". The social...

We evaluate alternative models of the volatility of commodity futures prices based on high-frequency intraday data from the crude oil futures markets for the October 2001-December 2012 period. These models are implemented with a simple GMM estimator that matches sample moments of the realized...

We examine the effect of scheduled macroeconomic announcements made by China on world financial and commodity futures markets. All announcements related to Chinese manufacturing and industrial output move stock markets, energy and industrial commodities as well as commodity currencies. News...

This paper models the tradeoff, perceived by central banks and other public actors, between providing the public with useful information and the risk of overwhelming it with excessive communication. An information authority chooses how many signals to provide regarding an aggregate state and...

This paper analyzes the impact of consumer uncertainty on optimal fiscal policy in a model with capital. The consumers lack confidence about the probability model that characterizes the stochastic environment and so apply a max-min operator to their optimization problem. An altruistic fiscal...

This paper considers whether the Phillips curve can explain the recent behavior of inflation in the United States. Standard formulations of the model predict that the ongoing large shortfall in economic activity relative to full employment should have led to deflation over the past several...