This paper analyzes the influence of the shadow economy on corruption and vice versa. We hypothesize that corruption and shadow economy are substitutes in high income countries while they are complements in low income countries. The hypotheses are tested for a cross-section of 120 countries and...

The typical identification strategy in aid effectiveness studies assumes donor motives do not influence the impact of aid on growth. We call this homogeneity assumption into question, first constructing a model in which donor motives matter and then testing the assumption empirically. -- Aid ;...

Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...

Using meta-analytical techniques, we focus on 11 studies that explicitly measure the effect of a net migration variable in neoclassical convergence models and derive 57 comparable effect sizes. The data suggest that an increase in the net migration rate of one percentage point increases on...

We conceptualize global liquidity as global monetary policy and credit components by means of a large-scale dynamic factor model in the spirit of Eickmeier,Gambacorta, and Hofmann (2014). Going beyond previous work, we decompose aggregate credit components into credit supply and demand flows...

We study the global macroeconomic effects of tariffs using a multiregional, general equilibrium model, EAGLE, that we extend by introducing US tariffs against Chinese imports into the US, and subsequently Chinese tariffs against US imports into China, consistent with recent trade policies by the...