Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...

It is widely believed that the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) has grossly fallen short of high expectations raised by the Bush administration in 2002. From the perspective of potential recipient countries, the crucial issue is whether the MCC increased the overall pool of aid resources...

We conceptualize global liquidity as global monetary policy and credit components by means of a large-scale dynamic factor model in the spirit of Eickmeier,Gambacorta, and Hofmann (2014). Going beyond previous work, we decompose aggregate credit components into credit supply and demand flows...

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...

We assess whether climate transition risk is priced in Europe's equity market by analysing relative equity returns of high versus low CO2-emitting firms. We use a panel data set covering firm-specific carbon emissions of 1,555 European companies over the period 2005-2019. We add to the existing...