Showing 1 - 10 of 48
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000980737
Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010533206
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009722706
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008771823
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003901823
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003408454
This paper examines the role of uncertainty shocks in a one-sector, representative-agent dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model. When prices are flexible, uncertainty shocks are not capable of producing business-cycle comovements among key macro variables. With countercyclical markups...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009312762
In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
Convergence in gross domestic product series of five European countriesis empirically identified using multivariate time series models that arebased on unobserved components with dynamic converging properties.We define convergence in terms of a decrease in dispersion over timeand model this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333256
This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. Weintroduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time-varyingassociation patterns in different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333890