This paper introduces a new solution method for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that produces non explosive paths. The proposed solution method is as fast as standard perturbation methods and can be easily implemented in existing software packages like Dynare as it is...

We study the performance of alternative methods for calculating in-sample confidence and out of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters. The in-sample bands reflect parameter uncertainty only. The out-of-sample bands reflect both parameter uncertainty and innovation uncertainty. The...

We study optimality properties in finite samples for time-varying volatility models driven by the score of the predictive likelihood function. Available optimality results for this class of models suffer from two drawbacks. First, they are only asymptotically valid when evaluated at the...

In finance, durations between successive transactions are usually modelled by the autoregressive conditional duration model based on a continuous distribution omitting frequent zero values. Zero durations can be caused by either split transactions or independent transactions. We propose a...

We study the performance of two analytical methods and one simulation method for computing in-sample confidence bounds for time-varying parameters. These in-sample bounds are designed to reflect parameter uncertainty in the associated filter. They are applicable to the complete class of...

We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...

The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...