Showing 1 - 10 of 1,797
The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap … ; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380402
unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast … bias. - Forecast combination ; forecast evaluation ; data snooping ; real-time data ; Survey of Professional Forecasters …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008771791
This paper sheds new light on the information content of monetary and credit aggregates for future price developments in the euro area. Overall, we find strong variation in the information content of these variables over time. We show that monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637074
breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299084
We compare direct forecasts of HICP and HICP excluding energy and food in the euro area and five member countries to aggregated forecasts of their main components from large Bayesian VARs with a shared set of predictors. We focus on conditional point and density forecasts, in line with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012384462
Density forecast combinations are examined in real-time using the log score to compare five methods: fixed weights …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012172228
In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156473
Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to … pre-tax price modelling. These characteristics enhance both in-sample explanatory power and forecast accuracy. Compared to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015416207
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009314062
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010195498