This paper tests the hypothesis that traders have rational expeatations and charge no risk premium in the forward exchange market. It uses a statistical procedure which is consistent under a large class of heteroscedasticity, and a set of data which takes into account the institutional features...

This paper develops a general framework for economic policy evaluation. Using ideas from statistical decision theory, it argues that conventional approaches fail to appropriately integrate econometric analysis into evaluation problems. Further, it is argued that evaluation of alternative...