In this paper, we endeavour to determine the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany that is in circulation outside Germany. In so doing, we draw a distinction between banknotes outstanding in non-euro-area countries and those that are in circulation in other euro-area countries. The analysis...

This paper examines to what extent the build-up of 'global imbalances' since the mid-1990s can be explained in a purely real open-economy DSGE model in which agents' perceptions of long-run growth are based on filtering observed changes in productivity. We show that long-run growth estimates...

We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. We use the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply "data-rich" factor and shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictor data series from many...

After the German reunification, interregional subsidies accounted for approximately four percent of gross fixed capital investment in the new federal states. We show that between 1992 and 2005 infrastructure and (small) business aid had a negative net impact on regional economic growth. This...

In this paper an index of financial competitiveness is calculated that corresponds to the market-to-book ratio of inward FDI stocks. For a panel of five advanced economies from 1980 to 2006 it is shown that price competitiveness, stable inflation rates and registered patents have a positive...

This paper studies the implications of cross-border financial integration for financial stability when banks' loan portfolios adjust endogenously. Banks can be subject to sectoral and aggregate domestic shocks. After integration they can share these risks in a complete interbank market. When...

This paper studies the nature of spillover effects in bank lending flows from advanced to the emerging market economies and identifies specific channels through which such effects occur. Based on a gravity model we examine a panel data set on cross-border bank flows from 17 advanced to 28...

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal...

Our goal in this project is to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements. To this end, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange...