Long memory and nonlinearity are two key features of some macroeconomic time series which are characterized by persistent shocks that seem to rise faster during recession than it falls during expansion. A variant of nonlinear time series model together with long memory are used to examine these...

The research used a long memory or Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average model to study and forecast crude oil prices using weekly West Texas Intermediate and Brent series for the period 15/5/1987 to 20/12/2013. Fractional differencing Methods such as Local Whittle Estimator and...

This paper examined the long memory features of GDP per capita data before the global financial crisis, using a sample of 26 African countries. The study employed fractional integration and tested the stability of the differencing parameter across the sample period for each country. The results...

The study reports empirical evidence that artificial neural network based models are applicable to forecasting of stock market returns. The Nigerian stock market logarithmic returns time series was tested for the presence of memory using the Hurst coefficient before the models were trained. The...

We estimate the steady state growth rate for the Nordic countries using a “knowledge economy” approach. An endogenous growth framework is employed, in which total factor productivity is a function of human capital (measured by average years of education), trade openness, research and...

This paper places the data revision model of Jacobs and van Norden (2011) within a class of trend-cycle decompositions relating directly to the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. In both these approaches identifying restrictions on the covariance matrix under simple and realistic conditions may...

We estimate a Factor Augmented Vector autoregression (FAVAR) to identify idiosyncratic exchange rate shocks and examine the effects of these shocks on different sectors of the economy. We find that an unexpected shock to the exchange rate has significant effects on the tradable sector of the...

The COVID19 crisis has a huge impact on economies all over the world. In this note we compare seasonal adjustments of X13 and CAMPLET before and after the COVID19 crisis. We show results of Quasi Real Time analyses for the quarterly series real GDP and the monthly series Consumption of...

Multivariate analysis can help to focus on economic phenomena, including trend and cyclical movements. To allow for potential correlation with seasonality, the present paper studies a three component multivariate unobserved component model, focusing on the case of quarterly data and showing that...

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to...