This article introduces an idea for summarizing of the stance of monetary policy with quantities derived from a class of yield curve models that respect the zero lower bound constraint for interest rates. The "economic stimulus measure" aggregates the current and estimated expected path of...

With nominal interest rates currently at or near their zero lower bound (ZLB) in many major economies, it has become untenable to apply Gaussian affine term structure models (GATSMs) while ignoring their inherent non-zero probabilities of negative interest rates. In this article I modify GATSMs...

I propose a simple framework that quantifies the stance of monetary policy as a 'shadow short rate' when the term structure is near the zero lower bound. I demonstrate my framework with a one-factor model applied to Japanese data, including an intuitive economic interpretation of the results,...

This is the first study to apply the Kalman filter analysis based on state space modelling to test for the existence of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition and simulate the risk premium between the pegged currencies of Nepal and India. We find significant evidence that the UIP...

This paper combines identification of monetary policy shocks from high-frequency financial market data with local projections IV to study the effects of monetary policy on household borrowing using Swedish data. The results are uncertain but indicate that the stock of household loans is 1.6...

The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend inflation, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial...

How does the yield curve respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962- 2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found to predict...

We develop importance sampling methods for computing two popular Bayesian model comparison criteria, namely, the marginal likelihood and deviance information criterion (DIC) for TVP-VARs with stochastic volatility. The proposed estimators are based on the integrated likelihood, which are...

This paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy during periods of low and high financial stress in the US economy using a Threshold Vector Autoregression model. There is evidence that expansionary monetary policy is effective during periods of high financial stress with larger responses having...

Along the lines of the treatment effects literature, this paper empirically revisits the issue of the so-called “intervention effect”, i.e., the effectiveness of official foreign exchange intervention on the movement of the exchange rate. We extended in a continuous treatment setting the...