This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analysing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth. More specifically, we focus on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their interactions with local weather...

During the past thirty years, euro area countries have undergone significant changes and experienced diverse shocks. We aim to investigate which variables have consistently supported growth in this tumultuous period. The paper unfolds in three parts. First, we assemble a set of 35 real,...

This paper explores the domestic and international effects of an increase in observed interest rates (conventional monetary policy) and expected interest rates (forward guidance). We find significant spillovers to a broad range of countries when both are subject to a tightening shock: Output...

We use a factor model and elastic net shrinkage to model a high-dimensional network of European CDS spreads. Our empirical approach allows us to assess the joint transmission of bank and sovereign risk to the non-financial corporate sector. Our findings identify a sectoral clustering in the CDS...

In recognition of the severe consequences of the recent international financial crisis, the topic of macroprudential policy has elicited considerable research effort. The present study constructs, for 46 economies around the globe, an index of the capacity to deploy macroprudential policies....

One way of evaluating how well monetary authorities perform is to provide the public with a regular and independent second opinion. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are shadowed by professional and academic economists who provide a separate policy rate recommendation...