We explore the historical relationship between financial conditions and real economic growth for quarterly U.S. data from 1875 to 2017 with a flexible empirical copula modelling methodology. We compare specifications with both linear and non-linear dependence, and with both Gaussian and...

The post-GFC era sees slower global growth and a substantial Chinese slowdown, unusually combined with lower investment financing costs, and with the eventual prospect of a US-led re-tightening of global financial markets. For Indonesia in the medium term, these developments imply a slowing of...

We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth...

This paper investigates the short-run effects of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement for 189 countries over the period 1961-2010. Contrary to what has previously been reported, we conclude that there is no strong evidence...

China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1...

This paper presents evidence on the macroeconomic adjustment of a resource-rich country to a resource boom using the effects of Chinese industrialisation on Australia from 1988 to 2016. An SVAR model is specified, incorporating a proxy for Chinese resource demand and commodity prices to identify...

Motivated by the mixed evidence in previous literature, we reexamine the effects of various types of government spending and taxes, as well as overall budget surplus/deficit, on economic growth. To address the model uncertainty issue that may have plagued earlier studies we employ a Bayesian...

We set up and estimate a small open economy model with fiscal policy in which trend growth can permanently change. The magnitude and timing of the change in trend growth are estimated alongside the structural and fiscal policy rule parameters. Around 2003:Q3, trend growth in per capita output is...