Showing 1 - 10 of 10
A general procedure is proposed to identify changes in asset return interdependence over time using entropy theory. The approach provides a decomposition of interdependence in terms of comoments including coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility as well as more traditional measures based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012930115
We test the predictive accuracy of forecasts of the number of COVID-19 fatalities produced by several forecasting teams and collected by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the first and second waves of the epidemic in the United States. We find three main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216474
We estimate the steady state growth rate for the Nordic countries using a “knowledge economy” approach. An endogenous growth framework is employed, in which total factor productivity is a function of human capital (measured by average years of education), trade openness, research and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102859
We estimate a Factor Augmented Vector autoregression (FAVAR) to identify idiosyncratic exchange rate shocks and examine the effects of these shocks on different sectors of the economy. We find that an unexpected shock to the exchange rate has significant effects on the tradable sector of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072839
How damaging are uncertainty shocks during extreme events such as the great recession and the Covid-19 outbreak? Can monetary policy limit output losses in such situations? We use a nonlinear VAR framework to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824111
How does the yield curve respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962- 2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found to predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868491
This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk stochastic process. Specifying inflation volatility as an unbounded process, as implied by the random walk, conflicts with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044567
We investigate whether the daily betas of individual stocks vary with the release of firm-specific news in an emerging market. Using intraday prices of all stocks traded on the Borsa Istanbul, Turkey over the period 2005-2013, we find evidence that average market betas increase significantly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236409
In this paper, we empirically look at the effects of uncertainty on risk measures for exchange rates, by focusing on two recent specific periods: the Brexit and the outbreak of the Covid-19. Based on a Fama regression extended with uncertainty measures, we forecast exchange rate in the short run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831289
This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014091408