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We estimate three different models of speculative behaviour using oil price data. There are two major results: (i) The three-regime model of Brooks and Katsaris (2005) and a three-regime variant of van Norden and Schaller (2002) fit the oil price data reasonably well; and (ii) Both models show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009153468
Life-cycle theory predicts ageing exerting long-term macroeconomic impacts through the reduction of private savings. However, empirical research studying macroeconomic determinants of savings generally regard age dependency as the sole measure of ageing, but overlook longevity, which can also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138658
are notable in Central and Eastern Europe, while the index has shown much smaller rises in most other parts of the world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138709
The global financial crisis of 2008 was a crisis affecting both the financial sector and the “real economy.” This paper … hypothesis that the financial crisis spread from the financial sector to the real economy by infecting financial stocks and real … economy stocks across most financial markets. The empirical analysis comprising ten sectors in 25 major developed and emerging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138715
the endogenous terms of trade risk sharing in the Cole and Obstfeld model, is largely inoperative in the real world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119451
consolidation on economies that are tightening and the flow-on effects to the world economy. The other debate is how much tightening … individual countries as well as the world as a whole. Where the government fiscal stimulus was seen as necessary to restore … consolidation in the industrial world that is not accompanied by US actions is likely to lead to a substantial worsening of trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125847
Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086343
a method that allows us to identify and compare demand from different groups of countries across the world, we find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086344
This paper studies the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on economic growth (and its sources) in a sample of 69 commodity-dependent countries, and assesses the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and quality of institutions in their long-term growth performance. Using annual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963315
The value of the US dollar is of major importance to the world economy. Global liquidity has grown sharply in recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000233