We propose a new measure of high order trade, labeled HOT, based on the fraction of a sector’s downstream uses that cross a border. Because it decomposes gross output, HOT evaluates a sector’s exposure to foreign shocks abstracting altogether from observed direct trade, which we exploit to...

Per capita carbon emissions are an important concept in international negotiations of climate policies and also in future projections of aggregate carbon emissions. This paper argues that the convergence studies on per capita carbon emissions in the literature are theoretically biased because...

This study evaluates the effects of financial uncertainty shocks in the US, investigating the role of the monetary policy stance. Estimating a nonlinear Vector Autoregressive, we find that an uncertainty shock triggers asymmetric and negative effects across the business cycle. The reactions of...

There is no consensus over the importance of “global forces” on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which ‘global forces' are relevant. Three conclusions stand out....

In this paper, we make use of the results from Structural Bayesian VARs taken from several studies for the euro area, which apply the idea of a shock-dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through, drawing a comparison across models and also with respect to available DSGEs. On impact, the results are...

Two reduced-form versions of New Keynesian wage Phillips curves based on either sticky nominal wages or real-wage rigidity using monthly US state-level data for the period 1982-2016 are examined, taking account of the endogeneity of unemployment by instrumentation and the use of common...

This study adds to a recent and growing literature that assesses the effects of macroprudential policy. We compare the effects of monetary policy and loan-to-value ratio shocks for Korea, an inflation targeting economy and an active user of loan-to-value limits. We identify shocks using...

Since the 2000s, large fluctuations in commodity prices have become a concern among policymakers regarding price stability. This paper investigates the effects of commodity price shocks on headline inflation with a monthly panel consisting of 144 countries. We find that the effects of commodity...

This paper investigates how and to what extent nonlinearity, including the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, affects the estimates of the natural rate of interest in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages. We find that the estimated natural rate...

In this paper we investigate dynamics of global inflation and short-run inflation expectations. We estimate a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model estimated using Bayesian techniques. We then explore the effect of three source of inflationary pressure that could drive up inflation...