The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. During each of these episodes, annual real per capita global GDP contracted, and this contraction was accompanied by weakening of other key indicators of global economic activity....

We document that trust in public institutions - and particularly trust in banks, business and government - has declined over recent years. U.S. time series evidence suggests that this partly reflects the pro-cyclical nature of trust in institutions. Cross-country comparisons reveal a clear...

The COVID-19 pandemic induced an increase in both the amount of time that households spend at home and the share of expenditures allocated to at-home consumption. These changes coincided with a period of rapidly rising house prices. We interpret these facts as the result of stay-at-home shocks...

This paper describes a fiscal database for Australia including measures of government spending, revenue, deficits, debt and various sub-aggregates as initially published and subsequently revised. The data vintages are collated from various sources and provide a comprehensive description of the...

This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High moderate-duration debt generates wealth effects on...

We analyse if the adoption of a fiscal rule insulates the domestic economy from commodity price fluctuations in a resource-rich economy. To do so we develop a timevarying Dynamic Factor Model, in which both the volatility of structural shocks and the systematic fiscal policy responses are...

We explore the historical relationship between financial conditions and real economic growth for quarterly U.S. data from 1875 to 2017 with a flexible empirical copula modelling methodology. We compare specifications with both linear and non-linear dependence, and with both Gaussian and...

I revisit the 1918-20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870-1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a...

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is not only a scientific breakthrough but also impacts on human society and economy as well as the development of economics. Research on AI economics is new and growing fast, with a current focus on the productivity and employment effects of...

The post-GFC era sees slower global growth and a substantial Chinese slowdown, unusually combined with lower investment financing costs, and with the eventual prospect of a US-led re-tightening of global financial markets. For Indonesia in the medium term, these developments imply a slowing of...