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Illegal Drugs and Public Corruption : Crack Based Evidence from California

Flamini, Alessandro; Jahanshahi, Babak; Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2018

Do illegal drugs foster public corruption? To estimate the causal effect of drugs on public corruption in California … that public corruption more than tripled in California in the first three years following the arrival of crack cocaine. We … argue that this resulted from the particular characteristics of illegal drugs: a large trade-off between profits and law …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014111722

The effect of corruption on foreign direct investment in natural resources : A Latin American case study

Cruz Luzuriaga, Manuel; Sedai, Ashish Kumar - 2021

This study looks at the relationship between corruption and foreign direct investment (FDI) in natural resources using … a panel of 20 Latin American countries from 1995-2019. We find that lower levels of corruption have a positive and … significant impact on resource FDI supporting the grabbing hand hypothesis. A one-point increase in the Corruption Perception …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312249

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2014

Prediction markets — markets used to forecast future events — have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014040532

Skill Composition, Fertility and Economic Growth

Day, Creina - 2014

reversal of fertility decline in a developed economy where most workers are skilled …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014154706

Modelling Complex Emissions Intensity Targets with a Simple Simulation Algorithm

Cai, Yiyong; Lu, YingYing; Newth, David; Stegman, Alison - 2013

Designing, modelling and analysing global emissions policies are becoming increasingly complex undertakings. Pressure on developing economies to make quantifiable emissions reduction commitments has led to the introduction of intensity based emissions targets, where reductions in emissions are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014157126

Comparing Hybrid Time-Varying Parameter VARs

Chan, Joshua; Eisenstat, Eric - 2018

Empirical questions such as whether the Phillips curve or the Okun’s law is stable can often be framed as a model …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112982

Trust and Monetary Policy

De Grauwe, Paul; Ji, Yuemei - 2022

underlying model and to know the distribution of the shocks that hit the economy. We find, first, that when large negative demand … economy into a bad trajectory, favorable initial conditions produce good trajectories …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014084666

Information Weighting Under Least Squares Learning

Galimberti, Jaqueson K - 2020

This paper evaluates how adaptive learning agents weight different pieces of information when forming expectations with a recursive least squares algorithm. The analysis is based on a renewed and more general non-recursive representation of the learning algorithm, namely, a penalized weighted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014098300

Too Many Shocks Spoil the Interpretation

Pagan, Adrian R.; Robinson, Tim - 2020

We show that when a model has more shocks than observed variables the estimated filtered and smoothed shocks will be correlated. This is despite no correlation being present in the data generating process. Additionally the estimated shock innovations may be autocorrelated. These correlations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014101173

On Bootstrapping Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy for Nested Models

Doko Tchatoka, Firmin; Haque, Qazi - 2020

The asymptotic distributions of the recursive out-of-sample forecast accuracy test statistics depend on stochastic integrals of Brownian motion when the models under comparison are nested. This often complicates their implementation in practice because the computation of their asymptotic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014101174