Showing 1 - 10 of 159
Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have experienced an extraordinary decline in inflation since the early 1970s. After peaking in 1974 at 17.3 percent, inflation in these economies declined to 3.5 percent in 2017. Despite a checkered history of managing inflation among many EMDEs,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891124
In the context of recent developments with cryptocurrencies, as well as the potential rise of central bank digital currencies, we present a new visualisation of money. Using three novel figures, we distinguish between the relevant mechanisms, technologies, recordkeeping, and transactions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860773
We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast densities from potentially many component models. Each component represents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138719
There is no consensus over the importance of “global forces” on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which ‘global forces' are relevant. Three conclusions stand out....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833362
This paper investigates how and to what extent nonlinearity, including the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, affects the estimates of the natural rate of interest in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages. We find that the estimated natural rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956545
In this paper we investigate dynamics of global inflation and short-run inflation expectations. We estimate a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model estimated using Bayesian techniques. We then explore the effect of three source of inflationary pressure that could drive up inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907659
How can parameter estimates be biased in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that omits nonlinearity in the economy? To answer this question, we simulate data from a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model with the zero lower bound constraint and estimate a linearized version of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011223
We argue in this paper that the Great Inflation of the 1970s can be understood as the result of equilibrium indeterminacy in which loose monetary policy engendered excess volatility in macroeconomic aggregates and prices. We show, however, that the Federal Reserve inadvertently pursued policies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059157
We document that expansionary monetary policy shocks are less effective at stimulating output and investment in periods of high volatility compared to periods of low volatility, using a regime-switching vector autoregression. Exogenous policy changes are identified by adapting an external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012990728
Along the lines of the treatment effects literature, this paper empirically revisits the issue of the so-called “intervention effect”, i.e., the effectiveness of official foreign exchange intervention on the movement of the exchange rate. We extended in a continuous treatment setting the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924376