Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China's reform and policy agenda are set to rebalance the economy toward consumption while maintaining a rate of GDP growth near seven per cent. Among the headwinds it faces is a demographic contraction that brings slower, and...

The world's two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that...

It is commonly understood that macroeconomic shocks influence commodity prices and that one channel for this is the link between interest rates, expected future asset returns and stockholding. In this paper the link is extended to the petroleum market with the recognition that recorded stocks of...

Central to global agreement on carbon emissions are strategic interactions amongst regions over carbon tax implementation and the benefits to be shared. These are re-examined in this paper, in which benefits from mitigation stem from a meta-analysis that links carbon concentration with...

Technical change in key OECD countries since 1990 is examined in terms of its contributions to total factor productivity and to factor bias. The dependence of real income and inequality on changes in factor abundance, total factor productivity, factor bias, the relative cost of capital goods and...

Continued automation and declines in low-skill shares of GDP have been widespread globally and linked to inequality. We examine the long-term, global consequences of policies that foster automation or address the distributional consequences of it, using a six-region global macro model. Results...

The recent rise of populism and authoritarian politics has seen a turn from multilateralism and toward international disputes like that between the US and China. This paper uses a calibrated global macro model to assess the potential economic consequences of this conflict under explicit...

China's financial openness, as measured by cross border flows and asset ownership, peaked during its 2000s growth surge, as did downward pressure on global interest rates and price levels. This was despite China's restriction of financial inflows to approved FDI and tight controls on private...

The dependence of real income and inequality on changes in factor abundance, total factor productivity, factor bias, the relative cost of capital goods and the progressivity of the tax system are quantified using an elemental general equilibrium model with three households. Observed declines in...

Stylized representations of recent US and Chinese tax reforms, tariffs against imports and alternative Chinese monetary targeting are examined using a calibrated global macro model that embodies both trade and financial interdependencies. For both countries, unilateral capital tax relief and...