This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures … (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator … available sources, our database constitutes a comprehensive, single source for inflation series. We illustrate the potential use …

stability. This paper investigates the effects of commodity price shocks on headline inflation with a monthly panel consisting … of 144 countries. We find that the effects of commodity price shocks on inflation virtually disappear within about one … fairly robust, suggesting a low risk of a persistent second-round effect on inflation. Employing the smooth transition …

Historians have suggested there were waves of inflation or price revolutions in the UK (and earlier England) in the 13 …th, 16th, and 18th centuries, prior to the ongoing inflation since 1914. We study retail price inflation since 1251 and … volatility. The long-horizon forecasts suggest only one inflation wave, that of the 20th century. We also use the model to …

Much research studies US inflation history with a trend-cycle model with unobserved components. A key feature of this … model is that the trend may be viewed as the Fed's evolving inflation target or long-horizon expected inflation. We provide … a new way to measure the slowly evolving trend and the cycle (or inflation gap), based on forecasts from the Survey of …

performance of commonly used time series models when forecasting CPI inflation in Australia. The main result is that trend models … inflation when the RBA adopted inflation targeting, the one-off 10 per cent Goods and Services Tax inflationary episode in 2000 …, and the gradual decline in inflation since 2014 …

In U.S. data, inflation and output are negatively related in the long run. A Bayesian VAR with stochastic trends … generalized to be piecewise linear provides robust reduced-form evidence in favor of a threshold level of trend inflation of … around 4%, below which potential output is independent of trend inflation, and above which, instead, potential output is …

algorithms. We assess the usefulness of these new models in an inflation forecasting exercise across all G7 economies. We find …

There is no consensus over the importance of “global forces” on inflation. This study explores the role of structural … breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which ‘global … forces' are relevant. Three conclusions stand out. Global inflation impacts inflation in both AE and EME, but the impact is …