As China becomes more closely entwined with the US, positive shocks in the US translate into positive outcomes for China, but the extent of gain for the US during the convergence process is less clear. We develop an empirical framework of two interacting open economies in which Chinese GDP per...

This paper analyzes the future growth potential of the North Korean economy, conditional on economic reform and integration with South Korea. The growth projections based on cross-country evidence show that, if North Korea embarks on substantial policy reforms toward a market-oriented and open...

This paper uses per capita data for 132 countries over 1960–2010 to estimate elasticities of sectoral energy use with respect to national gross domestic product (GDP). We estimate models in both levels and growth rates and use our estimates to sectorally decompose the aggregate energy-GDP...

This study explores China's economic growth performance and prospects in global and Asian comparative perspectives. Using a general framework of cross-country analysis, the study identifies and discusses major factors underlying China's strong growth over the past decades and those contributing...

Using a unique dataset on daily foreign exchange intervention and a new methodological framework of a latent factor model of central bank intervention, this paper addresses the effects of intervention in an emerging market. Events in financial markets from 2002 to 2010 provide a natural...

This paper explores the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a method that allows us to identify and compare demand from different groups of countries across the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian...

We study the response of a three-sector commodity-exporter small open economy to a commodity price boom. When the economy has access to international borrowing and lending, a temporary commodity price boom brings about the standard wealth effect that stimulates demand and has long-run...

The value of the US dollar is of major importance to the world economy. Global liquidity has grown sharply in recent years with growing importance of China's money supply to global liquidity. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US dollar exchange rate value using US and non-US global data...

The world will experience dramatic demographic change over this century. This paper examines the impacts of this global demographic change on the Australian economy at both the aggregate and sectoral levels in a global multi-region and multi-sector general equilibrium model. Using a detailed...

The world has been experiencing dramatic demographic change since the 1950s, with almost all countries facing ageing challenges this coming century. However, the timing and speed of this demographic transition are significantly asymmetric across countries. This paper examines the impacts of...