Showing 1 - 10 of 68
Financial time series often exhibit properties that depart from the usual assumptions of serial independence and normality. These include volatility clustering, heavy-tailedness and serial dependence. A voluminous literature on different approaches for modeling these empirical regularities has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072463
This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk stochastic process. Specifying inflation volatility as an unbounded process, as implied by the random walk, conflicts with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044567
This paper proposes a new approach to estimating high dimensional time varying parameter structural vector autoregressive models (TVP-SVARs) by taking advantage of an empirical feature of TVP-(S)VARs. TVP-(S)VAR models are rarely used with more than 4-5 variables. However recent work has shown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014110872
State space models play an important role in macroeconometric analysis and the Bayesian approach has been shown to have many advantages. This paper outlines recent developments in state space modelling applied to macroeconomics using Bayesian methods. We outline the directions of recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014091729
We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast densities from potentially many component models. Each component represents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138719
Various papers have identified shocks to investment as major drivers of output, investment, hours, and interest rates. These investment shocks have been linked to financial frictions because financial markets are instrumental in transforming consumption goods into installed capital. However, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105098
This paper explores the domestic and international effects of an increase in observed interest rates (conventional monetary policy) and expected interest rates (forward guidance). We find significant spillovers to a broad range of countries when both are subject to a tightening shock: Output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833360
Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze if revisions to these projections (i.e., forward guidance) can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961019
We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941610
This paper constructs a monthly real-time oil price dataset using backcasting and compares the forecast performance of alternative models of constant and time-varying volatility based on the accuracy of point and density forecasts of real oil prices of both real-time and ex-post revised data....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943623