Standard solution methods for linearised models with rational expectations take the structural parameters to be constant. These solutions are fundamental for likelihood-based estimation of such models. Regime changes, such as those associated with either changed rules for economic policy,...

We set up and estimate a small open economy model with fiscal policy in which trend growth can permanently change. The magnitude and timing of the change in trend growth are estimated alongside the structural and fiscal policy rule parameters. Around 2003:Q3, trend growth in per capita output is...

The early history of cycles research involved locating turning points in the data. Later, the development of methods such as spectral analysis led to a focus on oscillations. A distinction between cycles and oscillations is needed - both imply turning points, but turning points do not...

We build a multi-sector, open economy model that captures the effects of a commodity boom on unemployment when there is also ongoing structural change. We use Bayesian methods to jointly estimate transition path effects of structural change and business cycle dynamics. Applying our model to the...