We study the response of a three-sector commodity-exporter small open economy to a commodity price boom. When the economy has access to international borrowing and lending, a temporary commodity price boom brings about the standard wealth effect that stimulates demand and has long-run...

This paper studies the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on economic growth (and its sources) in a sample of 69 commodity-dependent countries, and assesses the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and quality of institutions in their long-term growth performance. Using annual...

This paper examines the effects of commodity demand and supply shocks as well as international liquidity shocks on the small open economy of Brazil using an SVAR model. The paper highlights the importance of modeling both types of shocks in the commodity sector. Including only commodity prices...

During the past thirty years, euro area countries have undergone significant changes and experienced diverse shocks. We aim to investigate which variables have consistently supported growth in this tumultuous period. The paper unfolds in three parts. First, we assemble a set of 35 real,...

The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded-good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are...

This paper empirically addresses the hypothesis that of the external commodity based sector, Chinese resource demand is the most important driver of emerging market economy business cycles using Brazil as a representative case. Using a structural VAR to examine the effects of Chinese resource...

China's financial openness, as measured by cross border flows and asset ownership, peaked during its 2000s growth surge, as did downward pressure on global interest rates and price levels. This was despite China's restriction of financial inflows to approved FDI and tight controls on private...

Dutch Disease is thought to have ongoing negative effects on resource rich open economies. There is little evidence on how economies recover. We document the Australian case in the aftermath of the commodities price boom resulting from high input demand from China. We show that where the boom is...

The paper investigates the impact of Asia's demand rebalancing and supply-side productivity changes on long-term economic growth in Asia and worldwide. Results from a panel vector autoregression model show that a productivity-neutral demand rebalancing shock has no permanent effect on Asian...

Indonesia fielded shocks due to the Asian financial crisis (AFC) and the global financial crisis (GFC) quite differently. Financial contagion, policy misdirection, panic and political upheaval saw the AFC bring economic collapse. The decade-later GFC, however, brought real growth of 6.1% (2008)...