This paper explores the hypothesis that the sources of economic and financial crises differ from non-crisis business cycle fluctuations. We employ Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) to gather evidence about the hypothesis on a long annual U.S. sample running from 1890 to...

We study British commodity markets and the extent to which prices in these markets were integrated in the short-run and converged in the long-run. Our historical data is new. It consists of five price indices for identically described goods - iron products, wood products, processed foods, red...

We study British commodity markets and the extent to which prices in these markets were integrated in the short-run and converged in the long-run. Our historical data is new. It consists of five price indices for identically described goods - iron products, wood products, processed foods, red...

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential)...

The US economy experienced a Great Moderation sometime in the mid-1980s -- a fall in the volatility of output growth -- at the same time as a fall in both the volatility of inflation and the average rate of inflation. We put this moderation in historical perspective by comparing it to the...