Using generalised variance decompositions from vector autoregressions, we analyse cross-country, cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and financial market volatility between the US and Japan. Our model includes indices of monetary, fiscal and trade policy uncertainty...

This paper analyses the interdependence of policy uncertainty from 1985 to 2017 across six different categories of US economic policy: Monetary, fiscal, healthcare, national security, regulatory, and trade policy. To this end, we apply the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) connectedness index...

We highlight how detrending within Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) is directly linked to the shock identification. Consequences of trend misspecification are investigated using a prototypical Real Business Cycle model as the Data Generating Process. Decomposing the different sources of...

The deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison. However, recent studies have cautioned against the use of the DIC for comparing latent variable models. In particular, the DIC calculated using the conditional likelihood (obtained by conditioning on the...

This paper examines the ability of vector autoregressive (VAR) models to properly identify the transmission of monetary policy in a controlled experiment. Simulating data from an estimated small open economy DSGE model for Australia, we find that sign-restricted VAR models do reasonably well at...

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in New Zealand using a structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. The model is the five-variable structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework proposed by Blanchard and Perotti (2005), further augmented to allow for the...

The paper empirically estimates the financial transmission between bond and equity markets within and across the four largest global financial markets - the United States, the Euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. We argue that international bond and equity markets are highly connected both...

We present a simple model of the macroeconomy that includes a role for an asset-price bubble, and derive optimal monetary policy settings for two policy-makers. The first policy-maker, a sceptic, does not attempt to forecast the future possible paths for the asset-price bubble when setting...

In this paper we use a simple model of the Australian economy to empirically examine the consequences of parameter uncertainty for optimal monetary policy. Optimal policy responses are derived for a monetary authority that targets inflation and output stability. Parameter uncertainty is...

This paper examines optimal monetary policy in an open-economy two-country model with sticky prices. Currency misalignments are shown to be inefficient and lower world welfare. Also, optimal policy must target not only inflation and the output gap, but also the currency misalignment. However,...