This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on a sample running from 1968Q4 to 2014Q2. The joint data generating process (DGP) of these data consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock...

This article examines the performance of inflation targeters during the 2007-2012 downturn compared to those without this policy. Propensity score matching methods are used to compare the policy regimes, where during a downturn the more successful policy results in higher inflation and output...

Central to the conduct of monetary policy are inflation forecasts. Inflation forecast are not unique. Central banks and professional organizations generate inflation forecasts while households are surveyed about their inflation outlook. This paper estimates inflation forecast disagreement for...