This paper proposes quantifying the evolution of the U.S. output-inflation tradeoff using a Time-Varying Parameter Structural VAR. This methodology circumvents issues with existing methods which tend to be either reduced form in nature or rely on more ad hoc assumptions regarding sample split...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on a sample running from 1968Q4 to 2014Q2. The joint data generating process (DGP) of these data consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock...

Central to the conduct of monetary policy are inflation forecasts. Inflation forecast are not unique. Central banks and professional organizations generate inflation forecasts while households are surveyed about their inflation outlook. This paper estimates inflation forecast disagreement for...