In this paper, we aim to understand how monetary policy is conducted in China and what the main sources of fluctuations in China’s business cycle are. To this end, we extend a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions and investment-specific...

We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these...

The deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison. However, recent studies have cautioned against the use of the DIC for comparing latent variable models. In particular, the DIC calculated using the conditional likelihood (obtained by conditioning on the...

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in New Zealand using a structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. The model is the five-variable structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework proposed by Blanchard and Perotti (2005), further augmented to allow for the...

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

This paper examines Australia's terms of trade boom since 2003 with a particular interest in quantifying the links between the terms of trade and sectoral performance and identifying an associated 'secondary services boom'. Comparative static general equilibrium modelling and empirical analysis...

Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productivity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model (BDFM). The model allows for resource movements and...

This paper analyzes the impact and effectiveness of conventional monetary policy during periods of low and high financial stress in the US economy. Using data from 1973Q1 to 2008Q4, the analysis is conducted by estimating a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model to capture switching...

Benhabib, Schmitt-Grohé, and Uribe (2001) argue for the existence of a deflation steady state when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate is considered in a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. This paper estimates a medium-scale DSGE model with a deflation steady state for the Japanese...

Using voting data from the Bank of England, we show that different individual assessments of the economy strongly influence votes after controlling for individual policy preferences. We estimate that internal members form more precise assessments than externals and are also more hawkish, though...