This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk stochastic process. Specifying inflation volatility as an unbounded process, as implied by the random walk, conflicts with...

We study the joint dynamics of foreign capital flows and real activity during the recent boom-bust cycle of the Spanish economy, using a three-country New Keynesian model with credit-constrained households and firms, a construction sector and a government. We estimate the model using...

We argue in this paper that the Great Inflation of the 1970s can be understood as the result of equilibrium indeterminacy in which loose monetary policy engendered excess volatility in macroeconomic aggregates and prices. We show, however, that the Federal Reserve inadvertently pursued policies...

Financial time series often exhibit properties that depart from the usual assumptions of serial independence and normality. These include volatility clustering, heavy-tailedness and serial dependence. A voluminous literature on different approaches for modeling these empirical regularities has...

The Calvo pricing model that lies at the heart of many New Keynesian business cycle models has been roundly criticized for being inconsistent both with time series data on inflation and with micro-data on the frequency of price changes. In this paper I develop a new pricing model whose structure...

This paper presents evidence on why inflation pass-through from oil shocks in the 21st century relative to the 1970s has dampened. First, results suggest global business cycle demand driven oil shocks are not inflationary. Second, there has been a reduction in inflation pass-through from oil...

This article develops a new econometric methodology for performing stochastic model specification search (SMSS) in the vast model space of time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility and correlated state transitions. This is motivated by the concern of over-fitting and the typically...

The deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison. However, recent studies have cautioned against the use of the DIC for comparing latent variable models. In particular, the DIC calculated using the conditional likelihood (obtained by conditioning on the...

This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk stochastic process. Specifying inflation volatility as an unbounded process, as implied by the random walk, conflicts with...

The Calvo pricing model that lies at the heart of many New Keynesian business cycle models has been roundly criticized for being inconsistent both with time series data on inflation and with micro-data on the frequency of price changes. In this paper I develop a new pricing model whose structure...