Benhabib, Schmitt-Grohé, and Uribe (2001) argue for the existence of a deflation steady state when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate is considered in a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. This paper estimates a medium-scale DSGE model with a deflation steady state for the Japanese...

In an influential paper, Engel and West (2005) claim that the near random-walk behavior of nominal exchange rates is an equilibrium outcome of a variant of present-value models when economic fundamentals follow exogenous first-order integrated processes and the discount factor approaches one....

Much research studies US inflation history with a trend-cycle model with unobserved components. A key feature of this model is that the trend may be viewed as the Fed’s evolving inflation target or long-horizon expected inflation. We provide a new way to measure the slowly evolving trend and...

Arguments for and against abandoning independent national currencies and monetary policies have varied considerably over time and by country. For New Zealand, it can be argued that a key driving force behind recent debates has been the conduct of monetary policy and the need for improved overall...

Arguments for and against abandoning independent national currencies and monetary policies have varied considerably over time and by country. For New Zealand, it can be argued that a key driving force behind recent debates has been the conduct of monetary policy and the need for improved overall...

Macroeconometric and fi?nancial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their sta- tistical properties from the primary random variables used in micro- econometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary...

To match the NBER business cycle features it is necessary to employ Gen- eralised dynamic categorical (GDC) models that impose certain phase re- strictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape re- strictions in the form of monotonicity and boundedness of certain...

Macroeconometric and fi?nancial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their sta- tistical properties from the primary random variables used in micro- econometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary...

To match the NBER business cycle features it is necessary to employ Gen- eralised dynamic categorical (GDC) models that impose certain phase re- strictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape re- strictions in the form of monotonicity and boundedness of certain...

We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast densities from potentially many component models. Each component represents...