This article contributes new time series for studying the UK economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average capital income, labor income, and consumption tax rates. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an...

This article contributes new time series for studying the UK economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average capital income, labor income, and consumption tax rates. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an...

We examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight combination strategies for forecasting using many time-varying models of the relationship be- tween inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect the uncertainty across models using many statistical...

We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast densities from potentially many component models. Each component represents...

We propose a methodology for producing forecast densities for economic aggregates based on disaggregate evidence. Our ensemble predictive methodology utilizes a linear mixture of experts framework to combine the forecast densities from potentially many component models. Each component represents...

We examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight combination strategies for forecasting using many time-varying models of the relationship be- tween inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect the uncertainty across models using many statistical...

We propose a methodology to gauge the uncertainty in output gap nowcasts across a large number of commonly-deployed vector autoregressions in US inflation and various measures of the output gap. Our approach constructs ensemble nowcast densities using a linear opinion pool. This yields...

We propose a methodology to gauge the uncertainty in output gap nowcasts across a large number of commonly-deployed vector autoregressions in US inflation and various measures of the output gap. Our approach constructs ensemble nowcast densities using a linear opinion pool. This yields...

Much research studies US inflation history with a trend-cycle model with unobserved components. A key feature of this model is that the trend may be viewed as the Fed’s evolving inflation target or long-horizon expected inflation. We provide a new way to measure the slowly evolving trend and...

This paper studies the implications of internal consumption habit for new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) models. Bayesian Monte Carlo methods are employed to evaluate NKDSGE model fit. Simulation experiments show that consumption habit often improves the ability of...