This paper presents evidence on why inflation pass-through from oil shocks in the 21st century relative to the 1970s has dampened. First, results suggest global business cycle demand driven oil shocks are not inflationary. Second, there has been a reduction in inflation pass-through from oil...

This paper investigates the influence of liquidity in the major developed and major developing economies on commodity prices. Liquidity is taken to be M2. A novel finding is that unanticipated increases in the BRIC countries’ liquidity is associated with significant and persistent increases in...

Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974-1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil...

Though there is a very large literature examining whether energy use Granger causes economic output or vice versa this literature is fairly inconclusive. Almost all existing studies use relatively short time series or panels with a relatively small time dimension. Additionally, many recent...

Analysis of the Michigan Survey data confirms U.S. inflation expectations are not perfectly anchored in the event of an oil price shock. Two key results emerge through counterfactual analysis. First, better anchoring of inflation expectations can ameliorate the mild inflation impact which occurs...

This paper attempts to estimate a model of inflation in Tajikistan using the Johanson cointegration approach and single equation error correction model. It also develops a methodology for creating monthly real output series. The paper investigates both the short run dynamic behaviour of...

This paper attempts to estimate a model of inflation in Tajikistan using the Johanson cointegration approach and single equation error correction model. It also develops a methodology for creating monthly real output series. The paper investigates both the short run dynamic behaviour of...

Does excluding food and energy prices from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) produce a measure that captures permanent price changes? To examine this question we decompose CPI inflation and "core" inflation into their permanent and transitory components using a correlated unobserved components...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on a sample running from 1968Q4 to 2014Q2. The joint data generating process (DGP) of these data consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock...

This paper proposes quantifying the evolution of the U.S. output-inflation tradeoff using a Time-Varying Parameter Structural VAR. This methodology circumvents issues with existing methods which tend to be either reduced form in nature or rely on more ad hoc assumptions regarding sample split...