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Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle

Krolzig, Hans-Martin - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 339-351

This paper addresses the issues of identification and dating of the Euro-zone business cycle by using the Markov … growth in the Euro-zone are identified by fitting Markov-switching models to aggregated and single-country Euro-zone real GDP … the smoothed regime probabilities from the Markov-switching models the Euro-zone business cycle is dated and recessions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377542

Seasonal Adjustment Methods and the Determination of Turning Points of the EMU Business Cycle

Lommatzsch, Kirsten; Stephan, Sabine - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 399-415

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the adjustment for seasonal effects with different seasonal adjustment methods, the possible pre-treatment for calendar effects and the different order of aggregation and adjustment for the determination of the turning points of the European business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377544

Business Cycle Extraction of Euro-Zone GDP: Direct versus Indirect Approach

Astolfi, Roberto; Ladiray, Dominique; Mazzi, Gian Luigi - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 377-398

Most of the Euro-zone economic short-term indicators are computed through aggregation from Member States data. The … given in the paper. An application to the Euro-zone GDP is presented. The same aggregation problem encountered in the case … widely used in the literature, we extracted the cycle indicator for the Euro-zone employing the Baxter-King filter to data …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377546

A New Indicator Based on Neftçi's Approach for Predicting Turning Points of the Euro-Zone Growth Cycle

Anas, Jacques; Nguiffo-Boyom, Muriel - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 364-376

turning points in the Euro-zone using the Neftçi's approach. The output is a probability index for a forthcoming economic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377550

Trend and Cycle in the Euro-Area: A Permanent-Transitory Decomposition Using a Cointegrated VAR Model

Schumacher, Christian - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 352-363

This paper investigates the Euro-area business cycle using a multivariate autoregressive time series model with cointegration. The cointegration restrictions help to identify permanent and transitory shocks which form the stochastic part of trend and cyclical GDP, respectively. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377551

Euroland: Besser als befürchtet, aber schlechter als erhofft?

Michaelis, Jochen; Pflüger, Michael - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 71 (2002) 3, pp. 296-311

Die Schaffung der Europäischen Währungsunion hatte in wissenschaftlichen Kreisen heftigste Kontroversen ausgelöst. Der vorliegende Beitrag unternimmt, dreieinhalb Jahre nach dem Beginn der Währungsunion, eine Bestandsaufnahme der Entwicklungen in den diesbezüglich zugrunde liegenden...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377580

Makroökonomische Implikationen der Mitgliedschaft Deutschlands in der Europäischen Währungsunion

Clausen, Volker; Hayo, Bernd - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 71 (2002) 3, pp. 339-353

Deutschlands im Euroraum findet die deutsche Konjunktur implizit starke Berücksichtigung in der Geldpolitik der EZB. Die Schocks in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377582

The global financial crisis: Lessons for European Integration

Dabrowski, Marek - 2009

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the various challenges facing European integration and the EU institutional architecture as result of the global financial crisis. The European integration process is not yet complete, both in terms of its content and geographical coverage. It can be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430830

The sustainability of public finances and fiscal policy coordination in the EMU

von Hagen, Jürgen - 2010

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a renewed increase in government deficits and debts in many EU countries, causing a full-fledged fiscal crisis in Greece and severe fiscal pressures in other euro-area countries. This has prompted a series of proposals for improving the fiscal framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430851

The bail-out!: Positive political economics of Greek-type crises in the EMU

Fahrholz, Christian; Wojcik, Cezary - 2010

The Greek bail-out was highly controversial. An oft-heard assessment is that i) the bail-out was a mistake, ii) the political haggling over it was irrational and iii) the bail-out will create a moral hazard problem. Contrary to this view, our analysis suggests that, given EMU's present...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430854